Major Meteor Showers in 2015
2014 was a rather dull year for meteor showers. For me, it started out well with a nice Quadrantid return. After that, the Lyrids were clouded out. I did spend a decent morning viewing Eta Aquarids, but there was no repeat of the strong rates seen in 2013. The Camelopardalid/209P meteor outburst on May 24th failed to live up to a hype, with only a few per hour. I got in one morning of observing during the South Delta Aquarids. The Perseids were badly moonlit, and my local weather conditions were so bad I didn't try. The Orionids were also clouded out for me, and I opted for an evening deep-sky and comet-observing session over a moonlit morning Leonid watch. The weather was promising for the Geminid peak, but turned on me at the last minute and left me with only a few Geminids glimpsed between clouds. Other reports I got from Geminid observers were very positive. An unexpected Ursid outburst occurred on the evening of December 23rd (PST), but I was clouded out for this as well.
In 2015, the Quadrantids are essentially lost to the full moon. Most of the other major showers fare much better, including the Perseids and Geminids. All in all, 2015 should be a great year to see our major annual meteor showers.
Basic Meteor Observing Information
Several factors determine how many meteors you will see from a shower.
* One of the most important is the elevation of the shower's radiant when you're watching. For most showers, the radiant is highest in the morning hours, and that's when you can expect the best rates. If the radiant is near or below the horizon, don't expect to see any shower meteors even if the sky is dark. For each shower, I list a "WHEN TO WATCH" window when the radiant is at a useful elevation. The local times I list in "WHEN TO WATCH" should be broadly valid for most sites in North America, regardless of your time zone or exact location. You may want to look up the beginning of morning astronomical twilight for a given date at your location. This can be found from planetarium software or some weather websites. I find that skies are still good enough for meteor observing for 15-30 minutes after the beginning of morning twilight.
* Clear, dark skies are essential for a rewarding meteor-watching experience. This is why the moon causes so many problems--it's just natural light pollution. Get away from artificial light pollution as best you can--don't expect to see many meteors from an urban or suburban location. The light wipes out the fainter meteors and makes the moderately bright ones less noticeable. Try to get to a location where the Milky Way is obvious on a summer night. Obviously, clouds are a deal-breaker as well.
* The actual activity level of the shower has a big impact, of course. But I put it third on the list of factors because you have little control over it. The year's best showers generally have one night/morning that they are most active. The peak of activity may last for a few hours to many hours, but the exact timing is usually uncertain. Nevertheless, I list the "predicted maximum" time for each shower (based on past observations and the IMO Meteor Shower Calendar) along with conversions to Pacific and Eastern times. If the peak time occurs during your daylight hours (or during the night but before the radiant is high in the sky), pick the productive observing time that is nearest the peak (my "WHEN TO WATCH" gives suggestions).
* Your personal visual perception and experience also factor into how many meteors you see. For best results, make sure your eyes are dark-adapted (don't expose them to any bright or not-so-bright lights for a half-hour or so before you begin observing) and that you are comfortable.
* I get quite a few questions about "where to look". "Where to look" is usually fairly easy: center your field of view high in the darkest, least-obstructed part of your sky. If you have tall trees or an overpowering city light dome in one direction, you probably should face another direction. You don't have to look right at the shower's radiant. Indeed, you'll probably see fewer meteors if you do. But it's also nice and productive to keep the radiant somewhere within the field of view. If there's a bright Moon in the sky, keep it out of your field of view or try to block it with something, like a tree or a car or a chair...
Not all the meteors you will see belong to the major shower. Sporadic (random) meteors are visible every night of the year. From dark sites, 5 to 15 or more sporadics may be seen each hour. Sporadics are most numerous in the predawn hours, when the Earth is running head-on into a lot of cometary debris. There are also minor showers active at the same time as most major showers. Most of these produce 0 to 2 meteors per hour even at peak activity.
When a meteor appears, make a note of its path against the stars. Hold a long shoestring or cord up against the sky at arm's length along this path. If you extend the meteor's path *backward* along the cord, does it eventually cross or come close to the shower's radiant as shown on the radiant map for that date? If so, the meteor was probably a shower member. If not, the meteor was not a shower member.
QUADRANTIDS
Predicted Maximum: January 4, ~01:30 UT (= January 3, 5:30pm PST; = January 3, 8:30pm EST)
Moon: Full Moon (major interference)
WHEN TO WATCH: The moon essentially washes out the Quadrantids this year. Die-hard observers will check out the last hour before dawn on Saturday, January 3rd and/or Sunday, January 4th. The moon will at least be low in the sky then.
The peak of this shower usually doesn't last long, and is notoriously variable in strength and timing and duration. The weather is often horrible as well. The best peaks, such as in 2009, are impressive indeed and produce rates of over 100 per hour. The predicted timing of this year's peak is far from ideal for North American observers, but the moon is the big reason that those who go looking will have to be content with a few Quadrantids even if their skies are clear.
Quadrantids are medium-velocity meteors. The shower usually produces quite a few fireballs around the time of maximum activity. The radiant is in a rather blank area surrounded by the constellation figures of Bootes, Hercules, Draco and Ursa Major (see the IMO radiant map). In addition to shower members, quite a few sporadics (random meteors not associated with a known shower) are visible from dark sites this time of year. This year's full moon will wipe out most of those as well.
LYRIDS
Predicted Maximum: April 23, ~0:00 UT (= April 22, 5:00pm PDT; = April 22, 8:00pm EDT)
Moon: Waxing Crescent (minor to moderate interference)
WHEN TO WATCH: The predicted Lyrid maximum occurs duing daytime hours for North American observers. European and Asian observers should watch from around 11pm on Wednesday, April 22nd through 3am on Thursday, April 23rd. North American observers can pick this period as well, or opt for the morning of Wednesday the 22nd from midnight until morning twilight. The crescent moon sets around midnight.
The Lyrids are another shower with a reputation for variable rates and timing. Usually, they produce about 10-20 meteors per hour at maximum (under dark skies). Under dark skies, North Amercan observers might expect around 10 Lyrids per hour along with a similar number of sporadic meteors. Lyrids produce fairly fast meteors with a reputation for being faint on average. However, I've seen my share of Lyrid fireballs.
ETA AQUARIDS
Predicted Maximum: May 6 (broad)
Moon: Waning Gibbous (major interference)
WHEN TO WATCH: The moon makes a mess of this year's Eta Aquarids. The Eta Aquarids are only visible for a short period around the time morning twilight begins. If you insist on going out, try the mornings of Tuesday, May 5th; Wednesday, May 6th; or Thursday, May 7th during the last bit of darkness and through astronomical twilight.
The Eta Aquarids are better for Southern Hemisphere observers, but are a bit difficult for everyone. The key is to watch during the last hour or so before twilight gets really bright. In terms of local time this depends on your latitude and also on your longitude with respect to the center of your time zone. Check an almanac or planetarium software. At latitude 42.6 degrees North, I've had my best results from about 3:30-4:30am local daylight time.
In 2013, the Eta Aquarids were unexpectedly prolific. Rates were closer to normal in 2014. Due to the bright moon, it will be difficult to draw any conclusions about rates in 2015. Observers from mid-northern latitudes might expect 5 Eta Aquarids and a few sporadics during the last hour of not-so-darkness.
The low radiant elevation means that the earliest ETAs you see will be "earthgrazers": long, relatively slow and often tracing paths along the horizon. Bright earthgrazers are spectacular. Unfortunately, because of their greater distance from the observer, earthgrazers tend to be faint. As the radiant gets a bit higher, the ETAs take on more of their typical appearance: fast meteors, bright on average and often leaving a glowing train. You'll only catch a few of them, though, because dawn is approaching. This shower seems to fluctuate irregularly, and you could easily hit either a spurt or a lull during the all-too-brief observing windows.
SOUTH DELTA AQUARIDS
Predicted Maximum: July 28-30 (broad)
Moon: Waxing Gibbous to Full (moderate to major interference)
WHEN TO WATCH: This shower's maximum seems to be broad and irregular. The moon gets progressively worse during the approach to this year's peak. Because of this, the best mornings to watch are the last two hours before twilight on Monday, July 27th or the last hour before twilight on Tuesday, July 28th.
The South Delta Aquarids are barely a major shower from 40 degrees N; southern observers have a somewhat better view. On a clear, moonless morning a North American observer might see 5-10 South Delta Aquarids each hour along with 15-25 meteors from other sources. A number of minor meteor showers are active at this time, and the Perseids are just getting started, producing a couple of meteors per hour in the early morning. The total number of meteors can be very impressive from a dark site.
Most of the activity you'll see will be faint, so get away from light pollution and avoid the moonlight hours. The South Delta Aquarids tend to be faint on average, but I have seen a few fireballs over the years. The nearby Anthelion and Alpha Capricornid minor shower radiants have a reputation for producing some fireballs. It is often difficult to tell which radiant a meteor came from (see The Finer Points of Meteor Shower Observing for more details), but you don't have to know in order to enjoy the show!
PERSEIDS
Predicted Maximum: August 13, ~7:00 UT (=August 13, midnight PDT; =August 13, 3am EDT)
Moon: New Moon (no interference)
WHEN TO WATCH: The new moon means perfect conditions for the Perseids this year. The peak night is late Wednesday evening, August 12th, until morning twilight on Thursday, August 13th. Because the shower's peak is fairly broad, it will also be worthwhile to observe on Wednesday morning, August 12th before morning twilight and late Thursday evening, August 13th through morning twilight on Friday the 14th.
The Perseids are probably the most-watched annual meteor shower. The shower has a very long duration, from about July 15th through August 25th, but is most interesting around its peak on August 12th or 13th. In recent years, the exact timing of the peak has varied somewhat from the predictions. From dark-sky sites, anywhere between 60 and 100 Perseids per hour is realistic on the morning of the 13th. Late on the evening of the 12th, rates of 20-40 per hour are more likely, but people still enjoy the Perseids that can be seen in the more convenient pre-midnight hours. Those who stay out for the pre-dawn hours are likely to be rewarded with more Perseids and also more sporadic and minor-shower meteors. These "extras" can add 10-20 meteors per hour to the total seen from dark sites. The Kappa Cygnids and the Aquarid/Capricornid complex radiants are active and above the horizon during the evening hours, so even casual observers have the chance to pick out some obvious non-Perseids that can't be traced back to the head of Perseus.
The Perseid radiant is above the horizon the entire night for observers north of latitude 32N, but it is fairly low at the end of evening twilight. That's why rates are usually better in the morning hours. Perseids are fast meteors and tend to be fairly bright on average. An occasional fireball is seen, especially around the maximum.
ORIONIDS
Predicted Maximum: October 21-22? (broad and irregular)
Moon: Waxing Gibbous (minor interference)
WHEN TO WATCH: Wednesday and/or Thursday morning, October 21st and 22nd, from about 1:30am until the start of morning twilight. Adjacent mornings (especially before the peak) may also be worth watching.
The Orionids are capable of producing interesting activity from October 17th through the 25th. Traditionally, the shower produces maximum rates of about 25 per hour, with occasional enhancements to 50 per hour occurring irregularly. The shower seems to produce spurts and lulls, so one morning (even around the predicted maximum) may be very dull while the next morning is very active. I never know what to expect from this shower. This year, the Moon is out of the way early in the activity period and starts becoming a real problem after the 22nd for mid-northern observers. Southerners may find the moon interferes a bit more.
The Orionids are fast meteors, perhaps a bit faint on average but capable of producing fireballs. Note that the radiant is north of Betelgeuse and not right in the middle of Orion (see the radiant map). The Orionids are joined by several minor showers (the Taurid complex, the Epsilon Geminids, and the Leonis Minorids) that each typically produce 1-2 meteors per hour.
LEONIDS
Predicted Maximum: November 18, ~4:00 UT (=November 17, 8:00pm PST; =November 17, 11:00pm EST)
Moon: Waxing Crescent (no interference)
WHEN TO WATCH: The predicted maximum occurs during the evening hours for North America. However, the Leonids are only really observable during the morning hours because the radiant is below the horizon until about 11pm at midnorthern latitudes. Try the mornings of Tuesday, November 17th during the last couple of hours before morning twilight and Wednesday, November 18th from about 1:30am until the start of morning twilight. Don't expect high rates on either morning (maybe 5-15 Leonids per hour at best). Sometimes the Leonids produce outbursts of activity away from the normal peak time. At this point, I know of no predictions of unusual activity for 2015. The moon will be out of the way this year, so this will be a good year to observe a "normal" Leonid shower.
The Leonids are very fast meteors. The shower is active at a low "background" level for up to a week before and after the maximum.
GEMINIDS
Predicted Maximum: December 14, ~6:00? UT (=December 13, 10:00pm PST; =December 14th, 1:00am EST)
Moon: Waxing Crescent (no interference)
WHEN TO WATCH: The best time to watch this year's Geminids will probably be the evening of Sunday, December 13th through morning twilight on Monday, December 14th. Mid-northern observers can start watching pretty early in the evening, as the radiant rises about the same time it gets dark. Rates will be a lot better after 8:30 or 9:00pm when the radiant is about halfway up in the sky and getting higher quickly. The waxing crescent moon sets before the radiant is in a good position, so this is a good year to observe the Geminids free from moonlight interference. The morning of Sunday, December 13th would be the second-best time to watch, and there may still be enough Geminid stragglers to make it worthwhile to observe on the evening of Monday, December 14th and morning of Tuesday, December 15th. More die-hard observers might also check out the morning of Saturday, December 12th as well.
The Geminids show a broad peak that is somewhat variable in timing. This is often considered the best annual shower, especially in locales where winters are mild. Observed rates could be around 80-100 per hour around midnight on the 14th for North American observers. An old rule of thumb is that Geminid rates double on each of the last few mornings leading up to the peak (e.g., 10 per hour on the morning of the 11th; 20 per hour on the 12th; 40 per hour on the 13th; and 80 per hour on the 14th). Rates usually drop precipitously after the peak (down to perhaps 20 per hour on the morning of the 15th). Weather permitting, this year's moon-free skies will allow observers to see whether this pattern holds true. The past couple of years, the peak has seemed to be a bit later and longer-lasting. If you feel up to it, collect your own data and submit it to the International Meteor Organization where it will be combined with that of other observers to produce a ZHR profile for this year's shower.
Southern Hemisphere observers also enjoy this shower, although with lower rates and a shorter viewing period in the predawn hours.
Geminids are medium-speed meteors. Most of them don't leave glowing trains, but the brighter ones are often colored (yellow, green and blue are most common). The Geminids seem to produce quite a few fireballs. Often, more bright meteors are seen during and after the maximum than before the maximum. Geminids aren't the only meteors that you'll see--in the morning hours, expect 10-15 other meteors per hour (sporadics and members of minor showers).
_____________________________
Other Sources of Meteor Activity
The major showers listed here are fairly reliable and occur every year. However, meteor activity is visible on any clear night. Random sporadic meteors, minor showers, and major showers near the beginning or end of their activity period all contribute to this "background". For the Northern Hemisphere, there is a general pattern of lower rates during the first half of the year and higher rates during the second half, but rates vary greatly from hour to hour, day to day, and observer to observer. Occasionally, unexpected high activity occurs. It is up to the observer to objectively describe what was seen. In many cases, high activity may be ascribed to randomness. Rarely, many of the meteors seen may be members of a periodic or previously unknown shower. The meteorobs mailing list is a good way to keep track of predictions and developments "beyond the majors".
Other Meteor Shower Info.
Outside Links
General shower attributes, radiant maps and predicted times of maximum are adapted from personal data and also from the International Meteor Organization's 2014 Meteor Shower Calendar. The 2015 IMO calendar had not been published as of December 30, 2014 when this page was first released. Recent data at http://www.imo.net/zhr was also examined. All on-site text and contents are Copyright 2014 by Wes Stone and may be reproduced for not-for-profit use so long as credit is given.
