Major Meteor Showers in 2012
After bright moonlight plagued most of the major showers in 2011, 2012 offers a reprieve. The Quadrantids start the year off with a bright waxing gibbous moon, but it will set by around 3am from most sites just as the Quadrantid radiant is starting to get high in the sky. While the moon will be in the sky during prime viewing hours for the August Perseids, it will only be about 25% illuminated. December's Geminids (which I found impressive in 2011 despite the moon) fall on New Moon with no lunar interference this year. The Eta Aquarids are the only shower that is really wiped out this year.
Basic Meteor Observing Information
Several factors determine how many meteors you will see from a shower.
* One of the most important is the elevation of the shower's radiant when you're watching. For most showers, the radiant is highest in the morning hours, and that's when you can expect the best rates. If the radiant is near or below the horizon, don't expect to see any shower meteors even if the sky is dark. For each shower, I list a "WHEN TO WATCH" window when the radiant is at a useful elevation. The local times I list here should be broadly valid for most sites in mid-northern latitudes, regardless of your time zone.
* Clear, dark skies are essential for a good meteor-watching experience. This is why the moon causes so many problems--it's just natural light pollution. Get away from artificial light pollution as best you can--don't expect to see many meteors from an urban or suburban location. The light wipes out the fainter meteors and makes the moderately bright ones less noticeable. Try to get to a location where the Milky Way is obvious on a summer night. Obviously, clouds are a deal-breaker as well.
* The actual activity level of the shower has a big impact, of course. But I put it third on the list of factors because you have little control over it. The year's best showers generally have one night/morning that they are most active. The peak of activity may last for a few hours to many hours, but the exact timing is usually uncertain. Nevertheless, I list the "predicted maximum" time for each shower (usually from the IMO Meteor Shower Calendar) along with conversions to Pacific and Eastern times.
* Your personal visual perception and experience also factor into how many meteors you see. For best results, make sure your eyes are dark-adapted (don't expose them to any bright or not-so-bright lights for a half-hour or so before you begin observing) and that you are comfortable.
* I get quite a few questions about "where to look". "Where to look" is usually fairly easy: center your field of view high in the darkest, least-obstructed part of your sky. If you have tall trees or an overpowering city light dome in one direction, you probably should face another direction. You don't have to look right at the shower's radiant. Indeed, you'll probably see fewer meteors if you do. But it's also nice and productive to keep the radiant somewhere within the field of view. If there's a bright Moon in the sky, keep it out of your field of view or try to block it with something, like a tree or a car or a chair...
Not all the meteors you will see belong to the shower. Sporadic (random) meteors are visible every night of the year. From dark sites, 5 to 15 or more sporadics may be seen each hour. Sporadics are most numerous in the predawn hours, when the Earth is running head-on into a lot of cometary debris. There are also minor showers active at the same time as most major showers. Most of these produce 0 to 2 meteors per hour even at peak activity.
When a meteor appears, make a note of its path against the stars. Hold a long shoestring or cord up against the sky at arm's length along this path. If you extend the meteor's path *backward* along the cord, does it eventually cross or come close to the shower's radiant as shown on the radiant map for that date? If so, the meteor was probably a shower member. If not, the meteor was not a shower member.
QUADRANTIDS
Predicted Maximum: January 4, ~7h20m UT (= Jan. 3, 11:20pm PST; = Jan. 4, 2:20am EST)
Moon: Waxing Gibbous (moderate interference)
WHEN TO WATCH: The morning of Wednesday, January 4th is the best bet for all observers. The Moon sets at around 3am--start watching around this time and continue until twilight gets too bright (about 6am; earlier for southern sites and later for northern ones).
The peak of this shower doesn't last long, and is notoriously variable in strength and timing and duration. 2009 featured an especially long and strong peak, while the 2011 shower was shorter and more modest. During the favorable viewing hours on January 4th, North American observers with clear skies might expect to see anywhere from 30 to 75 or more Quadrantids per hour. Usually, rates are very low on mornings adjacent to the peak, so the 4th is your one shot at seeing decent Quadrantid activity this year. The bright moonlight will make evening viewing a waste of time as well, so stick with the favorable morning hours. Often, the biggest challenge to prospective Quadrantid watchers is the January weather, which is usually awful.
Quadrantids are medium-velocity meteors, and some bright ones are often visible around the time of maximum activity. The radiant is in a rather blank area surrounded by the constellation figures of Bootes, Hercules, Draco and Ursa Major (see the radiant map). Along with the Quadrantids, there are usually quite a few sporadics (random meteors not associated with a known shower) visible from dark sites.
I observed the Quadrantids on the morning of January 4th. In 2.9 hours observing time, I saw 124 Quadrantids and 34 other meteors. Skies were generally good with occasional patchy clouds passing through. More details in my log.
LYRIDS
Predicted Maximum: April 22, ~5h30m UT (= Apr. 21, 10:30pm PDT; = Apr, 22, 1:30am EDT)
Moon: Waxing Crescent (no interference)
WHEN TO WATCH: Mid-northern observers may start observing during the late evening hours of Saturday, April 21, just before midnight. Continue into the early morning hours of Sunday, April 22 until morning twilight or until you get too tired.
The Lyrids are another shower with a reputation for variable rates and timing. Usually, they produce about 10-20 meteors per hour at maximum (under dark skies). In most years, the peak is fairly sharp, so observations on the mornings of April 21 or 23 probably won't produce much. Lyrids produce fairly fast meteors with a reputation for being faint on average. However, I've seen my share of Lyrid fireballs, and the 2009 display was uncharacteristically bright.
I didn't get in a formal observing session for the Lyrids. I took my scope to a local star party for the public, and the Lyrids were certainly active between 10:30pm and midnight. I saw maybe a dozen Lyrids, 2 or 3 Anthelions, and a few sporadics despite paying more attention to my scope and my visitors. By the time I got home, I was pretty tired. I gave it a half-hearted go, but my concentration just wasn't up to par and the meteor rates seemed to have fallen off as well.
ETA AQUARIDS
Predicted Maximum: May 5 (broad)
Moon: Full Moon (major interference)
WHEN TO WATCH: The Eta Aquarids are only visible for a short period around the time morning twilight begins. This year, consider skipping them due to the bright moon. If you want to catch a few, maybe try the morning of Thursday, May 3 after moonset.
The Eta Aquarids are better for Southern Hemisphere observers, but are a bit difficult for everyone. The key is to watch during the last hour or so before twilight gets really bright. In terms of local time this depends on your latitude and also on your longitude with respect to the center of your time zone. Check an almanac or planetarium software. At latitude 42.6 degrees North, I've had my best results from about 3:40-4:40am local daylight time. Only a handful will likely be visible this year.
The low radiant elevation means that the earliest ETAs you see will be "earthgrazers": long, relatively slow and often tracing paths along the horizon. Bright earthgrazers are spectacular. Unfortunately, because of their greater distance from the observer, earthgrazers tend to be faint. As the radiant gets a bit higher, the ETAs take on more of their typical appearance: fast meteors, bright on average and often leaving a glowing train. You'll only catch a few of them, though, because dawn is approaching. This shower seems to fluctuate irregularly, and you could easily hit either a spurt or a lull during the all-too-brief observing windows.
SOUTH DELTA AQUARIDS
Predicted Maximum: July 28 (broad)
Moon: Waxing Gibbous (moderate interference)
WHEN TO WATCH: This shower's maximum seems to be broad and irregular. The IMO Shower Calendar actually lists the maximum date as July 29. Watch during the last couple of hours before morning twilight on Saturday, July 28, or try the adjacent mornings. There is more moon-free time before morning twilight on the 27th, and less on the 29th. Remember that twilight comes pretty early for mid-northern latitudes at this time of year (around 4am for my place).
The South Delta Aquarids are barely a major shower from 40 degrees N; southern observers have a somewhat better view, but the maximum ZHR is probably about 20. The real treat is the number of meteors from different sources visible from dark sites on moonless mornings in late July. Along with 5-10 South Delta Aquarids, a mid-northern observer might see at least the same number of sporadic (random) meteors. There will probably also be a couple of meteors from the Antihelion and Alpha Capricornid radiants. The Perseids are just becoming active, and you may see 2 or 3 per hour. This can add up to an impressive number of meteors with a bit of luck. You may not be able to assign every meteor to its correct radiant, but don't let that keep you from enjoying them! South Delta Aquarids are medium-speed meteors, and tend to be faint on average.
I observed for 2 hours on the morning of the 29th, and saw a total of 58 meteors--just what I would expect. 26 of these were sporadics, 14 were South Delta Aquarids, and 12 were Perseids.
PERSEIDS
Predicted Maximum: August 12, ~13h UT (=August 12, 6am PDT; =August 12, 9am EDT)
Moon: Waning Crescent (moderate interference)
WHEN TO WATCH: The Perseids will probably peak on the morning of August 12, but they have a long observable activity period. Observers at mid-northern latitudes may want to start observing as early as 10pm on Saturday, August 11, and continue through the beginning of morning twilight on Sunday, August 12. The waning crescent moon will rise in the early morning hours and be a bit of an annoyance. Face away from the moon and keep it out of your field of view for best results. Repeat on the late evening of Sunday, August 12 and the morning of August 13, as Perseid rates should remain fairly strong a day after the peak.
The Perseids are probably the most-watched annual meteor shower. The shower has a very long duration, from about July 15 through August 25, but is most interesting around its peak on August 12 or 13. Under good conditions, one might see 50-90 Perseids per hour this year. In recent years, the exact timing of the peak has varied somewhat from the predictions.
The Perseid radiant is above the horizon the entire night for observers north of latitude 32N, but it is fairly low at the end of evening twilight. Rates are usually better in the morning hours. Perseids are fast meteors and tend to be fairly bright on average. An occasional fireball is seen. The Perseids aren't the only meteors around: sporadics, minor showers like the Kappa Cygnids, and a few leftover South Delta Aquarids add to the display.
I only got in one night of Perseid observing this year, and it was somewhat plagued with forest fire smoke. Nevertheless, during 3.3 hours of observing on Sunday morning August 12th I saw 140 Perseids and 20 other meteors.
ORIONIDS
Predicted Maximum: October 21? (broad and irregular)
Moon: First Quarter (minor interference)
WHEN TO WATCH: The center of the activity and nominal peak of the Orionids is Sunday, October 21, so it would be good to watch that morning from 1 or 2am until morning twilight gets too bright. The Orionids have a history of being unpredictable, however, so watching the adjacent mornings during the same period is just as likely to be productive. The moon starts entering the prime viewing hours after the 23rd.
The Orionids are capable of producing interesting activity from October 17-25. Traditionally, the shower produces maximum rates of about 25 per hour, with occasional enhancements to 50 per hour occurring irregularly. The shower peak was very strong and long-lived during 2006 and a few years thereafter, but appeared to have returned to normal in 2011. The shower seems to produce spurts and lulls, so one morning (even around the predicted maximum) may be very dull while the next morning is very active.
The Orionids are fast meteors, perhaps a bit faint on average but capable of producing fireballs. Note that the radiant is north of Betelgeuse and not right in the middle of Orion (see the radiant map). A minor shower called the Epsilon Geminids has a nearby radiant that can cause confusion, but usually produces only 1-2 meteors per hour. The South Taurids produce a few nice, slow meteors from a radiant farther west. Finally, 5-15 sporadic meteors are usually visible each hour under dark sites.
I observed the Orionids for two hours on the morning of Sunday, October 21. The shower was faint (mean magnitude about 2.9), with rates a bit below average (my hourly counts were 16 and 20). In addition to the 36 Orionids, I saw 31 other meteors.
TAURIDS
Predicted Maximum: Late October through early November (very broad and irregular)
Moon: Full Moon to Waning Crescent (major to minor interference)
On any given late evening or early morning in October or November, dedicated meteor observers will see an average of two or three meteors per hour from the Taurid radiant complex. These meteors are slow, with a mix of bright and faint ones. Also during this time, casual skywatchers and non-astronomers often report more fireballs (very bright meteors) than usual, especially during the late evening hours. Many of these fireballs are Taurids as well.
The Taurids are a confusing meteor shower. There are at least two main radiants (the Southern Taurids and the Northern Taurids), but they are close enough that it's often difficult for visual observers to tell which radiant a meteor came from. The Taurids have long been associated with debris from Comet Encke, but debris from other short-period comets and earth-crossing asteroids probably contributes to the meteoroid stream. Rates are usually low, but sometimes exceed 10 or even 15 an hour. 2012 may feature one of those enhanced returns, and for that reason I'm putting the Taurids on my list of major showers this year.
WHEN TO WATCH: I'm not sure how conducive the Taurids are to dedicated observation, but if you're out and about you should be aware of the potential for enhanced fireball activity. The IMO Meteor Shower Calendar indicates possible dates between October 28th and November 11th. Early in this period, the Full Moon will make observations difficult, but won't wipe out any fireballs. Later on, especially after November 3rd, there will be a nice moon-free stretch in the late evening. It will be interesting to see if anything out of the ordinary happens. The Taurids also feature in the list of "other meteors" observable during your morning Orionid and Leonid observations, although rates should be pretty low around the peaks of those showers.
Taurid meteors are slow, and bright ones tend to be colorful. I've seen a lot of orange and red ones, and the brightest fireballs are often blue or green.
LEONIDS
Predicted Maximum: November 17, ~9h30m UT (=1:30am PST, =4:30am EST)
Moon: Waxing Crescent (no interference)
WHEN TO WATCH: The Leonids are best observed from about 2am until the beginning of morning twilight. Try the morning of Saturday, November 17. Rates this year will probably be 10-15 Leonids per hour at best. The shower is probably also worth watching for a day before and a couple of days after the predicted maximum. The IMO Meteor Shower Calendar also mentions a possible secondary peak on the morning of Tuesday, November 20.
The Leonids are very fast meteors. The shower is active at a low "background" level for up to a week before and after the maximum.
GEMINIDS
Predicted Maximum: December 13, ~23h30m UT (=3:30pm PST; =6:30pm EST)
Moon: New Moon (no interference)
WHEN TO WATCH: The Geminid radiant is highest in the sky around 2am. There are two prime opportunities to watch. The entire night from around 10pm on late Wednesday evening, December 12 until morning twilight on Thursday, December 13. Also Thursday evening, December 13, from around 9pm into the early morning hours of Friday, December 14.
The Geminids show a broad peak that is somewhat variable in timing. This is often considered the best annual shower, especially in locales where winters are mild. Peak rates may exceed 100/hour from dark northern hemisphere sites (although this year's predicted peak timing doesn't favor North America), and rates of 60/hour may persist for 24 hours or more. Southern hemisphere observers also enjoy this shower, although with lower rates and a shorter viewing period in the predawn hours.
Geminids are medium-speed meteors. Most of them don't leave glowing trains, but the brighter ones are often colored (yellow, green and blue are most common). The Geminids seem to produce quite a few fireballs. Often, more bright meteors are seen during and after the maximum than before the maximum, but rates drop off rather quickly at the same time. Watch for this effect on the evening of the 13th into the morning of the 14th. A good number of sporadic and minor-shower meteors add to the show, especially in the morning hours.
Note: I observed for 3.5 hours on the morning of December 13th and saw 245 Geminids and 70 other meteors.
On the evening of December 13th, I did a casual watch from 6:50-7:35pm and saw 22 Geminids and 2 other meteors even though the radiant was low. I observed for 1.6 hours later that evening and counted 74 Geminids and 10 other meteors. The Geminids were definitely brighter on the evening of the 13th compared to the previous morning.
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Other Sources of Meteor Activity
The major showers listed here are fairly reliable and occur every year. However, meteor activity is visible on any clear night. Random sporadic meteors, minor showers, and major showers near the beginning or end of their activity period all contribute to this "background". For the Northern Hemisphere, there is a general pattern of lower rates during the first half of the year and higher rates during the second half, but rates vary greatly from hour to hour, day to day, and observer to observer. Occasionally, unexpected high activity occurs. It is up to the observer to objectively describe what was seen. In many cases, high activity may be ascribed to randomness. At other times, many of the meteors seen may be part of a periodic or previously unknown shower.
There are some periodic, irregular, and hypothetical showers that could produce surprises during 2012. The meteorobs mailing list is a good way to keep track of predictions and developments "beyond the majors".
Other Meteor Shower Info.
Outside Links
General shower attributes, radiant maps and predicted times of maximum are adapted from the International Meteor Organization's 2012 Meteor Shower Calendar as well as personal data. Recent activity profiles were characterized from http://www.imo.net/zhr. All on-site text and contents are Copyright 2010, 2011 by Wes Stone and may be reproduced for not-for-profit use so long as credit is given.
